FINAL: CBJ 5 — SEA 2. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CBJ 3.52 - SEA 1.82 (CBJ at 64.3% win probability). The spread is -1.5 and the total is 6.5.
CBJ
3.52
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
SEA
1.82
Projected Score
Win Probability
CBJSEA
-1.5
Spread (CBJ)
6.5
Total Line
5,000
Simulations
SEACBJ L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.7% (1,083 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
0.71.82.9
CBJ
2.43.54.6
Projected
CBJ 3.52 — SEA 1.82
Actual
CBJ 5 — SEA 2
Pick Results
Under 6.5totalLOSS-1.50u
Game Odds
CBJ ML
-190
SEA ML
+155
Puck Line
-1.5
Total
6.5
Edge Detail
CBJ Edge
-1.2%
SEA Edge
-3.5%
Projected Total
5.34
-1.16 vs line
Goalie Matchup
Joey Daccord
27-232.87 GAA90.2% SV
Jet Greaves
7-22.63 GAA90.8% SV
Special Teams
Power Play
Penalty Kill
90% Confidence: 54.7% – 73.9% home win probability
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE50.9% WR (n=330)
CBJ's elite Jet Greaves (.938 SV%, 1.91 GAA) at home against a cold, struggling SEA team (L2, 4-6 L10) represents a genuine goaltending edge that validates the market's -182 price — model gives CBJ 62.5% win probability, confirming direction if not full magnitude.
Key Factors
- CBJ goalie: Jet Greaves (.938 SV%, 1.91 GAA, ELITE) — extraordinary season, among best SV% in NHL; SEA's Daccord (.906 SV%, average) — 0.032 SV% gap = ~0.5 goal edge for CBJ
- CBJ blazing hot: 4-1 L5, 7-3 L10, W3 streak, 3.8 GF/1.8 GA per game L5 — dominant recent form
- SEA ice cold: 2-3 L5, 4-6 L10, L2 streak, 3.0 GF/3.6 GA per game L5 — leaking goals
- Model: CBJ 62.5% win probability; market -182 implies 64.5% — model near-confirms market direction (edge: -2.0%)
- Style mismatch: CBJ speed_transition (1.053 tempo) vs SEA grinding_defensive (0.923 tempo) — CBJ's pace exploits SEA's slower system; CBJ 30.04 shots/game vs SEA's 29.34 shots against/game
Risk Factors
- -182 heavy chalk: paying premium juice (need 64.5% win rate to break even) — model's 62.5% suggests slight negative EV at this price
- SEA's PK (73.4%) is worst on today's slate — but CBJ's PP (20.7%) is merely average, limiting exploitation
- CBJ's P1 scoring pattern (45.9% of goals in P1) vs SEA's P2/P3 pattern — if SEA survives early, game can tighten
GOALIE ELITEGOALIE CONFIRMEDGOALIE FORM HOTHOT STREAKCOLD STREAKHOME ICE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CBJ 64.3%
-1.2 pts
Spread
-1.5
-1.2 pts
Total
6.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NHL Hockey Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →