FINAL: EDM 5 — SJS 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected EDM 3.5 - SJS 2.31 (EDM at 61.4% win probability). The spread is -1.5 and the total is 6.5.
EDM
3.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
SJS
2.31
Projected Score
Win Probability
EDMSJS
-1.5
Spread (EDM)
6.5
Total Line
5,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.7% (1,083 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
SJS
1.22.33.4
EDM
2.43.54.6
Projected
EDM 3.5 — SJS 2.31
Actual
EDM 5 — SJS 3
Pick Results
Under 7.0totalLOSS-2.00u
Game Odds
EDM ML
-186
SJS ML
+150
Puck Line
-1.5
Total
6.5
Edge Detail
EDM Edge
-3.6%
SJS Edge
-1.4%
Projected Total
5.81
-0.69 vs line
Goalie Matchup
Yaroslav Askarov
4-63.56 GAA88.6% SV
Tristan Jarry
16-123.33 GAA88.5% SV
Special Teams
Power Play
Penalty Kill
90% Confidence: 52.2% – 70.6% home win probability
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1YELLOW ZONE52.2% WR (n=309)
EDM -186 home favorite is directionally correct (EDM 33-26-9, .556 pts% vs SJS 32-27-6, .538 pts%), but the standings gap is TINY — a near-.500 matchup — while the DATA_INTEGRITY alert is triggered by SJS dramatically outperforming expectations (32-27-6) as a supposed 'lottery team'; EDM's Jarry (.893 SV%) is a backup-tier goalie and Askarov (SJS) is DTD.
Key Factors
- DATA_INTEGRITY ALERT: SJS 32-27-6 (.538 pts%) — this is NOT a lottery team; they're barely below EDM (33-26-9, .556 pts%) — a 1.8% gap makes -186 wildly expensive for such a close matchup
- EDM Jarry SV% .893 (backup tier, 3.12 GAA) — not an elite goalie advantage; SJS Askarov is DTD (.896 SV%), if Nedeljkovic starts (.894 SV%) the goalie matchup is essentially EVEN
- Model: EDM 61.4% win prob (STRONG quality score of 61) — this is the highest model conviction on today's slate, but historically 60-65% bucket = 54.5% WR in our calibration data (60-65% actual WR = 54.5%)
- SJS L1 loss but L5: 2-3, L10: 5-5 — not a dominant team but clearly functional and competitive, NOT a 61.4% underdog quality-wise
- EDM PP 31.91% (best on today's slate) — power play advantage is real but PK 77.25% (below average) offsets some of that
Risk Factors
- EDM at -186 demands 65.1% break-even probability; model gives 61.4% — 3.7% gap, expensive juice for model conviction
- Askarov DTD creates goalie uncertainty for SJS — if backup Nedeljkovic starts, it's marginally worse but not a massive downgrade (.894 vs .896 SV%)
- SJS 3-in-4 fatigue (0.858 factor) combined with 1,189 miles of travel is a legitimate concern for road team
DATA INTEGRITYHIGH EDGE WARNINGGOALIE UNCONFIRMEDMODEL MARKET CONFLICT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
EDM 61.4%
-3.6 pts
Spread
-1.5
-3.6 pts
Total
6.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NHL Hockey Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →