FINAL: SEA 2 — STL 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected SEA 3.88 - STL 2.89 (SEA at 54.6% win probability). The spread is -1.5 and the total is 6.0.
SEA
3.88
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.0
STL
2.89
Projected Score
Win Probability
SEASTL
-1.5
Spread (SEA)
6.0
Total Line
1,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 48.7% (1,083 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
STL
1.82.94.0
SEA
2.83.95.0
Projected
SEA 3.88 — STL 2.89
Actual
SEA 2 — STL 3
Pick Results
Over 6.0totalLOSS-1.00u
Game Odds
SEA ML
-150
STL ML
+123
Puck Line
-1.5
Total
6.0
Edge Detail
SEA Edge
-5.4%
STL Edge
+0.6%
Projected Total
6.77
+0.77 vs line
Goalie Matchup
Jordan Binnington
28-223.60 GAA86.8% SV
Joey Daccord
27-232.74 GAA90.6% SV
Special Teams
Power Play
Penalty Kill
90% Confidence: 46.4% – 62.7% home win probability
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE52.3% WR (n=88)
SEA at home (-143) is the right side with a clear quality/form edge — SEA (29-22-9, W4 HOT streak, 3.8 GF/2.2 GA L5) hosts a COLD STL team (22-29-9, L2 streak, 4.8 GA/game L5) with the best home ML favorable profile active, though both goalies unconfirmed (Grubauer .914 SV% vs Binnington .867 SV% unconfirmed) adds uncertainty.
Key Factors
- FORM MISMATCH: SEA HOT (W4 streak, L5: 4-1-0, 3.8 GF/2.2 GA) vs STL COLD (L2 streak, L5: 1-3-1, 4.0 GF/4.8 GA — defensive catastrophe)
- GOALIE EDGE: Grubauer unconfirmed but 2.50 GAA/.914 SV% vs Binnington unconfirmed 3.60 GAA/.867 SV% — 1.10 GAA gap and 0.047 SV% gap overwhelmingly favors SEA if both confirmed
- RECORD GAP: SEA 29-22-9 (.597 pt pct) vs STL 22-29-9 (.442 pt pct) — 15.5% point pct differential justifying -143 home pricing
- HOME PROFILE: Home ML favorites last 30 days: 5-0 (100% WR, combo|home|favorite) — strongest active profile in our tracked data; SEA home W4 streak supports
- STL STYLE: 'Rebuilding' archetype (tempo 0.875, lowest on slate) vs SEA 'grinding_defensive' — STL has weakest shot generation (25.18/game) against SEA's solid defensive structure (1.017)
Risk Factors
- Both goalies unconfirmed — if Binnington (confirmed) plays instead of Grubauer for SEA, that reverses the goalie edge significantly
- STL on 3 days rest (rest days: 3) vs SEA on 2 days rest — slight rest advantage for STL
- No simulation data for this game; STL L5 GF 4.0 goals despite poor form — offense is live in spots (could keep this competitive)
GOALIE UNCONFIRMEDCOLD STREAKHOT STREAKHOME ICELINE VALUE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SEA 54.6%
-5.4 pts
Spread
-1.5
-5.4 pts
Total
6.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NHL Hockey Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 1,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →