FINAL: SJS 2 — STL 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected SJS 2.53 - STL 3.69 (STL at 54.8% win probability). The spread is -1.5 and the total is 6.0.
SJS
2.53
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.0
STL
3.69
Projected Score
Win Probability
SJSSTL
-1.5
Spread (SJS)
6.0
Total Line
1,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 48.7% (1,083 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
STL
2.63.74.8
SJS
1.42.53.6
Projected
SJS 2.53 — STL 3.69
Actual
SJS 2 — STL 3
Pick Results
Over 6.0totalLOSS-1.00u
Game Odds
SJS ML
-141
STL ML
+116
Puck Line
-1.5
Total
6.0
Edge Detail
SJS Edge
-13.3%
STL Edge
+8.5%
Projected Total
6.22
+0.22 vs line
Goalie Matchup
Jordan Binnington
28-223.60 GAA86.8% SV
Yaroslav Askarov
4-63.57 GAA88.6% SV
Special Teams
Power Play
Penalty Kill
90% Confidence: 38.4% – 52.0% home win probability
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
STL 54.8%
-13.3 pts
Spread
-1.5
-13.3 pts
Total
6.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NHL Hockey Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 1,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →