FINAL: BOS 2 — TOR 4. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected BOS 3.05 - TOR 2.08 (BOS at 60.0% win probability). The spread is -1.5 and the total is 6.5.
BOS
3.05
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
TOR
2.08
Projected Score
Win Probability
BOSTOR
-1.5
Spread (BOS)
6.5
Total Line
5,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.7% (1,083 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
TOR
1.02.13.2
BOS
2.03.04.1
Projected
BOS 3.05 — TOR 2.08
Actual
BOS 2 — TOR 4
Pick Results
Under 6.5totalWIN+1.20u
Game Odds
BOS ML
-195
TOR ML
+160
Puck Line
-1.5
Total
6.5
Edge Detail
BOS Edge
-6.1%
TOR Edge
+1.6%
Projected Total
5.13
-1.37 vs line
Goalie Matchup
Joseph Woll
27-143.17 GAA90.4% SV
Jeremy Swayman
22-292.72 GAA90.8% SV
Special Teams
Power Play
Penalty Kill
90% Confidence: 51.0% – 69.0% home win probability
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
BOS 60.0%
-6.1 pts
Spread
-1.5
-6.1 pts
Total
6.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NHL Hockey Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →