FINAL: OTT 3 — TOR 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected OTT 3.08 - TOR 2.3 (OTT at 60.1% win probability). The spread is -1.5 and the total is 6.5.
OTT
3.08
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
TOR
2.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
OTTTOR
-1.5
Spread (OTT)
6.5
Total Line
1,000
Simulations
TOROTT L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.7% (1,083 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
TOR
1.22.33.4
OTT
2.03.14.2
Projected
OTT 3.08 — TOR 2.3
Actual
OTT 3 — TOR 1
Pick Results
Under 6.5totalWIN+0.93u
Game Odds
OTT ML
-205
TOR ML
+170
Puck Line
-1.5
Total
6.5
Edge Detail
OTT Edge
-7.1%
TOR Edge
+2.8%
Projected Total
5.38
-1.12 vs line
Goalie Matchup
Joseph Woll
27-143.34 GAA89.9% SV
Linus Ullmark
25-142.73 GAA89.1% SV
Special Teams
Power Play
Penalty Kill
90% Confidence: 51.1% – 69.2% home win probability
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
OTT 60.1%
-7.1 pts
Spread
-1.5
-7.1 pts
Total
6.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NHL Hockey Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 1,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →