FINAL: PHI 0 — UTA 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected PHI 4.87 - UTA 3.04 (PHI at 57.2% win probability). The spread is 1.5 and the total is 6.0.
PHI
4.87
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.0
UTA
3.04
Projected Score
Win Probability
PHIUTA
+1.5
Spread (PHI)
6.0
Total Line
1,000
Simulations
UTA W5PHI L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 48.7% (1,083 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
UTA
2.03.04.1
PHI
3.84.96.0
Projected
PHI 4.87 — UTA 3.04
Actual
PHI 0 — UTA 3
Pick Results
Over 6.0totalLOSS-1.00u
Game Odds
PHI ML
+107
UTA ML
-130
Puck Line
+1.5
Total
6.0
Edge Detail
PHI Edge
+8.9%
UTA Edge
-13.7%
Projected Total
7.91
+1.91 vs line
Goalie Matchup
Karel Vejmelka
26-222.61 GAA90.0% SV
Dan Vladar
12-112.42 GAA90.8% SV
Special Teams
Power Play
Penalty Kill
90% Confidence: 48.6% – 65.8% home win probability
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEANYELLOW ZONE48.8% WR (n=80)
UTA (32-25-4, .556 pt%) is the better team traveling to PHI (28-21-11, .558 pt%) and is correctly priced as road favorites at -130, but the away favorite zone is structurally neutral and no goalie advantage exists.
Key Factors
- UTA record: 32-25-4 (.556) vs PHI 28-21-11 (.558) — essentially tied on points percentage, no quality mismatch
- UTA goalie Vejmelka: .904 SV%, 2.58 GAA (average tier) vs PHI Vladar: .898 SV%, 2.80 GAA (backup tier) — minor UTA goalie edge
- UTA form: 3-2 L5, 5-5 L10 — neutral; PHI form: 3-2 L5, 4-6 L10 — PHI has edge in recent form
- PHI home ML zone: YELLOW 52.3% WR — slight home push possibility; UTA away ML zone: YELLOW 48.8% WR
- Away ML favorite structural zone: 48.8% WR (n=80) — neutral at best, no meaningful edge
Risk Factors
- Away favorite zone is YELLOW-to-RED (48.8% WR) — no structural backing for UTA road chalk
- PHI playing at home with slight recent form advantage (3-2 L5 both teams, but PHI has home rest: 3 days vs UTA 2 days)
- No V17 simulation output — model uncertainty; PHI backup goalie but not dramatically worse than UTA
GOALIE UNCONFIRMEDREST EDGE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PHI 57.2%
+8.9 pts
Spread
+1.5
+8.9 pts
Total
6.0
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NHL Hockey Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 1,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →