FINAL: SEA 4 — VGK 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected SEA 1.95 - VGK 2.99 (VGK at 60.1% win probability). The spread is 1.5 and the total is 6.0.
SEA
1.95
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.0
VGK
2.99
Projected Score
Win Probability
SEAVGK
+1.5
Spread (SEA)
6.0
Total Line
1,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.7% (1,083 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
VGK
1.93.04.1
SEA
0.91.93.0
Projected
SEA 1.95 — VGK 2.99
Actual
SEA 4 — VGK 3
Pick Results
Under 6.0totalLOSS-1.00u
Game Odds
SEA ML
+150
VGK ML
-186
Puck Line
+1.5
Total
6.0
Edge Detail
SEA Edge
-0.1%
VGK Edge
-4.9%
Projected Total
4.93
-1.07 vs line
Goalie Matchup
Akira Schmid
2-02.83 GAA88.2% SV
Joey Daccord
27-233.02 GAA89.6% SV
Special Teams
Power Play
Penalty Kill
90% Confidence: 33.9% – 45.9% home win probability
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
VGK 60.1%
-0.1 pts
Spread
+1.5
-0.1 pts
Total
6.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NHL Hockey Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 1,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →