FINAL: CBJ 1 — WPG 2. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CBJ 2.93 - WPG 2.3 (CBJ at 55.7% win probability). The spread is -1.5 and the total is 6.0.
CBJ
2.93
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.0
WPG
2.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
CBJWPG
-1.5
Spread (CBJ)
6.0
Total Line
5,000
Simulations
WPG W4CBJ L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 48.7% (1,083 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
WPG
1.22.33.4
CBJ
1.82.94.0
Projected
CBJ 2.93 — WPG 2.3
Actual
CBJ 1 — WPG 2
Pick Results
Under 6.0totalWIN+0.83u
Game Odds
CBJ ML
-157
WPG ML
+130
Puck Line
-1.5
Total
6.0
Edge Detail
CBJ Edge
-5.3%
WPG Edge
+0.8%
Projected Total
5.23
-0.77 vs line
Goalie Matchup
Connor Hellebuyck
47-122.81 GAA89.8% SV
Jet Greaves
7-22.60 GAA90.9% SV
Special Teams
Power Play
Penalty Kill
90% Confidence: 47.4% – 64.1% home win probability
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CBJ 55.7%
-5.3 pts
Spread
-1.5
-5.3 pts
Total
6.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NHL Hockey Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →