Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur prediction for June 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Alex de Minaur 0 - Adrian Mannarino 0. Alex de Minaur is favored with a 68.6% win probability.
Alex de Minaur
1814
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Adrian Mannarino
1486
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Alex de MinaurAdrian Mannarino
Hard
Surface
S-Hertogenbosch
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 62.6% (5,165 games)
Match Context
Tournament
S-Hertogenbosch
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Adrian Mannarino
Alex de Minaur
Alex de Minaur leads by 328 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Adrian Mannarino SPW
63.1%
Below tour avg
Alex de Minaur SPW
65.6%
Above tour avg
● Alex de Minaur has a slight serve edge (+2.5%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Adrian Mannarino ML
+380
Model: 31%
Edge: +10.6%
Alex de Minaur ML
-443
Model: 69%
Edge: -13.0%
Model Projection
Adrian Mannarino ML +380 · +10.6% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Alex de Minaur holds a commanding 328-point Elo advantage on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Alex de Minaur has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Alex de Minaur at 69%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Alex de Minaur 68.6%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →