Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur prediction for July 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Alex de Minaur 0 - Adrian Mannarino 0. Alex de Minaur is favored with a 50.2% win probability.
Alex de Minaur
1689
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Adrian Mannarino
1523
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Alex de MinaurAdrian Mannarino
Grass
Surface
ATP Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.0% (6,507 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Adrian Mannarino
Alex de Minaur
Alex de Minaur leads by 166 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Adrian Mannarino SPW
68.0%
Above tour avg
Alex de Minaur SPW
64.9%
Above tour avg
● Adrian Mannarino has a significant serve advantage (+3.1%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Adrian Mannarino ML
+364
Model: 50%
Edge: +28.2%
Alex de Minaur ML
-436
Model: 50%
Edge: -31.1%
Model Projection
Adrian Mannarino ML +364 · +28.2% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Alex de Minaur holds a commanding 166-point Elo advantage on Grass
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Adrian Mannarino has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Alex de Minaur 50.2%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →