Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska prediction for June 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Dayana Yastremska 0 - Ajla Tomljanovic 0. Dayana Yastremska is favored with a 69.9% win probability.
Dayana Yastremska
1493
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • WTA
Ajla Tomljanovic
1490
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Dayana YastremskaAjla Tomljanovic
Hard
Surface
S-Hertogenbosch
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 66.8% (5,057 games)
Match Context
Tournament
S-Hertogenbosch
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Ajla Tomljanovic
Dayana Yastremska
Dayana Yastremska leads by 3 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Hard: 56.5%
Ajla Tomljanovic SPW
52.5%
Below tour avg
Dayana Yastremska SPW
61.0%
Above tour avg
● Dayana Yastremska has a significant serve advantage (+8.5%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Ajla Tomljanovic ML
+139
Model: 30%
Edge: -11.7%
Dayana Yastremska ML
-157
Model: 70%
Edge: +8.8%
Model Projection
Dayana Yastremska ML -157 · +8.8% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (3-point Elo gap)
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Dayana Yastremska has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Dayana Yastremska at 70%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Dayana Yastremska 69.9%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →