Ajla Tomljanovic vs Sada Nahimana prediction for May 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Sada Nahimana 0 - Ajla Tomljanovic 0. Sada Nahimana is favored with a 52.3% win probability.
Sada Nahimana
1467
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • WTA
Ajla Tomljanovic
1490
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Sada NahimanaAjla Tomljanovic
Hard
Surface
WTA Rabat
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.2% (2,335 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA Rabat
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Ajla Tomljanovic
Sada Nahimana
Ajla Tomljanovic leads by 23 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Hard: 56.5%
Ajla Tomljanovic SPW
53.5%
Below tour avg
Sada Nahimana SPW
56.0%
Below tour avg
● Sada Nahimana has a slight serve edge (+2.4%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Ajla Tomljanovic ML
-422
Model: 48%
Edge: -33.1%
Sada Nahimana ML
+344
Model: 52%
Edge: +29.7%
Model Projection
Sada Nahimana ML +344 · +29.7% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (23-point Elo gap)
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Sada Nahimana has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Sada Nahimana 52.3%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →