Alec Deckers vs Bernard Tomic prediction for June 6, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Bernard Tomic 0 - Alec Deckers 0. Alec Deckers is favored with a 51.7% win probability.
Bernard Tomic
1460
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Alec Deckers
1489
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Bernard TomicAlec Deckers
Hard
Surface
S-Hertogenbosch
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.1% (4,404 games)
Match Context
Tournament
S-Hertogenbosch
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Alec Deckers
Bernard Tomic
Alec Deckers leads by 29 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Alec Deckers SPW
61.8%
Below tour avg
Bernard Tomic SPW
63.7%
Above tour avg
● Bernard Tomic has a slight serve edge (+1.9%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Alec Deckers ML
-292
Model: 52%
Edge: -22.8%
Bernard Tomic ML
+235
Model: 48%
Edge: +18.4%
Model Projection
Bernard Tomic ML +235 · +18.4% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (29-point Elo gap)
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Bernard Tomic has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Alec Deckers 51.7%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →