Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Andrey Rublev prediction for May 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Andrey Rublev 0 - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 0. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is favored with a 50.6% win probability.
Andrey Rublev
1674
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
1634
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Andrey RublevAlejandro Davidovich Fokina
Clay
Surface
ATP Italian Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.0% (2,070 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Italian Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Andrey Rublev
Andrey Rublev leads by 40 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SPW
59.8%
Below tour avg
Andrey Rublev SPW
59.5%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ML
+130
Model: 51%
Edge: +7.2%
Andrey Rublev ML
-150
Model: 49%
Edge: -10.6%
Model Projection
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ML +130 · +7.2% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (40-point Elo gap)
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 50.6%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →