Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Corentin Moutet prediction for May 20, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Corentin Moutet 0 - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 0. Corentin Moutet is favored with a 52.2% win probability.
Corentin Moutet
1617
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
1634
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Corentin MoutetAlejandro Davidovich Fokina
Clay
Surface
Hamburg Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 50.8% (2,384 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Hamburg Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Corentin Moutet
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina leads by 18 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SPW
59.0%
Below tour avg
Corentin Moutet SPW
59.5%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ML
-200
Model: 48%
Edge: -18.9%
Corentin Moutet ML
+165
Model: 52%
Edge: +14.5%
Model Projection
Corentin Moutet ML +165 · +14.5% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (18-point Elo gap)
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Corentin Moutet has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Corentin Moutet 52.2%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →