Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Corentin Moutet prediction for June 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Corentin Moutet 0 - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 0. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is favored with a 53.8% win probability.
Corentin Moutet
1628
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
1652
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Corentin MoutetAlejandro Davidovich Fokina
Grass
Surface
ATP Queen's Club Championships
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 50.7% (5,703 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Queen's Club Championships
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Corentin Moutet
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina leads by 23 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SPW
67.6%
Above tour avg
Corentin Moutet SPW
65.5%
Above tour avg
● Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has a slight serve edge (+2.1%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ML
-148
Model: 54%
Edge: -5.9%
Corentin Moutet ML
+132
Model: 46%
Edge: +3.1%
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (23-point Elo gap)
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 53.8%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →