Alejandro Tabilo vs Felix Auger-Aliassime prediction for May 31, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Felix Auger-Aliassime 0 - Alejandro Tabilo 0. Alejandro Tabilo is favored with a 52.5% win probability.
Felix Auger-Aliassime
1650
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Alejandro Tabilo
1491
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Felix Auger-AliassimeAlejandro Tabilo
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.2% (4,173 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Alejandro Tabilo
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Felix Auger-Aliassime leads by 159 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Alejandro Tabilo SPW
62.0%
Below tour avg
Felix Auger-Aliassime SPW
60.3%
Below tour avg
● Alejandro Tabilo has a slight serve edge (+1.8%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Alejandro Tabilo ML
+150
Model: 52%
Edge: +12.5%
Felix Auger-Aliassime ML
-169
Model: 47%
Edge: -15.4%
Model Projection
Alejandro Tabilo ML +150 · +12.5% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Felix Auger-Aliassime holds a commanding 159-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Alejandro Tabilo has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Alejandro Tabilo 52.5%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →