Alejandro Tabilo vs Kamil Majchrzak prediction for June 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Kamil Majchrzak 0 - Alejandro Tabilo 0. Kamil Majchrzak is favored with a 56.8% win probability.
Kamil Majchrzak
1592
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Alejandro Tabilo
1503
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Kamil MajchrzakAlejandro Tabilo
Grass
Surface
ATP Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.4% (6,507 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Alejandro Tabilo
Kamil Majchrzak
Kamil Majchrzak leads by 89 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Alejandro Tabilo SPW
65.3%
Above tour avg
Kamil Majchrzak SPW
65.9%
Above tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Alejandro Tabilo ML
+185
Model: 43%
Edge: +8.1%
Kamil Majchrzak ML
-211
Model: 57%
Edge: -11.0%
Model Projection
Alejandro Tabilo ML +185 · +8.1% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Kamil Majchrzak has a moderate 89-point Elo edge on Grass
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Kamil Majchrzak has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Kamil Majchrzak 56.8%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →