Aleksandar Vukic vs Harry Wendelken prediction for June 20, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Harry Wendelken 0 - Aleksandar Vukic 0. Aleksandar Vukic is favored with a 51.6% win probability.
Harry Wendelken
1625
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Aleksandar Vukic
1452
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Harry WendelkenAleksandar Vukic
Grass
Surface
ATP Eastbourne
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 50.8% (5,961 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Eastbourne
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Aleksandar Vukic
Harry Wendelken
Harry Wendelken leads by 173 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Aleksandar Vukic SPW
65.9%
Above tour avg
Harry Wendelken SPW
64.1%
Above tour avg
● Aleksandar Vukic has a slight serve edge (+1.8%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Aleksandar Vukic ML
-128
Model: 52%
Edge: -4.6%
Harry Wendelken ML
+110
Model: 48%
Edge: +0.8%
Key Matchup Factors
- Harry Wendelken holds a commanding 173-point Elo advantage on Grass
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Aleksandar Vukic has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Aleksandar Vukic 51.6%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →