Aleksandar Vukic vs Raphael Collignon prediction for May 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Raphael Collignon 0 - Aleksandar Vukic 0. Raphael Collignon is favored with a 56.2% win probability.
Raphael Collignon
1501
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Aleksandar Vukic
1450
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Raphael CollignonAleksandar Vukic
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.8% (3,811 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Aleksandar Vukic
Raphael Collignon
Raphael Collignon leads by 50 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Aleksandar Vukic SPW
58.7%
Below tour avg
Raphael Collignon SPW
59.9%
Below tour avg
● Raphael Collignon has a slight serve edge (+1.1%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Aleksandar Vukic ML
+822
Model: 44%
Edge: +32.9%
Raphael Collignon ML
-1377
Model: 56%
Edge: -37.0%
Model Projection
Aleksandar Vukic ML +822 · +32.9% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Raphael Collignon has a moderate 50-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Raphael Collignon has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Raphael Collignon 56.2%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →