Alexander Bublik vs Kyrian Jacquet prediction for July 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Kyrian Jacquet 0 - Alexander Bublik 0. Alexander Bublik is favored with a 72.4% win probability.
Kyrian Jacquet
1496
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Alexander Bublik
1747
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Kyrian JacquetAlexander Bublik
Grass
Surface
ATP Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 66.7% (6,507 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Alexander Bublik
Kyrian Jacquet
Alexander Bublik leads by 252 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Alexander Bublik SPW
67.4%
Above tour avg
Kyrian Jacquet SPW
63.8%
Above tour avg
● Alexander Bublik has a significant serve advantage (+3.6%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Alexander Bublik ML
-294
Model: 72%
Edge: -2.2%
Kyrian Jacquet ML
+265
Model: 28%
Edge: +0.2%
Key Matchup Factors
- Alexander Bublik holds a commanding 252-point Elo advantage on Grass
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Alexander Bublik has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Alexander Bublik at 72%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Alexander Bublik 72.4%
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More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →