Alexander Bublik vs Sebastian Baez prediction for May 4, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Sebastian Baez 0 - Alexander Bublik 0. Alexander Bublik is favored with a 64.8% win probability.
Sebastian Baez
1566
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Alexander Bublik
1833
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Sebastian BaezAlexander Bublik
Clay
Surface
ATP Italian Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.1% (1,872 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Italian Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Alexander Bublik
Sebastian Baez
Alexander Bublik leads by 267 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Alexander Bublik SPW
63.2%
Below tour avg
Sebastian Baez SPW
59.2%
Below tour avg
● Alexander Bublik has a significant serve advantage (+4.0%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Alexander Bublik ML
-140
Model: 65%
Edge: +6.5%
Sebastian Baez ML
+128
Model: 35%
Edge: -8.7%
Model Projection
Alexander Bublik ML -140 · +6.5% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Alexander Bublik holds a commanding 267-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Alexander Bublik has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Alexander Bublik 64.8%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →