Alexandre Muller vs Edas Butvilas prediction for May 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Edas Butvilas 0 - Alexandre Muller 0. Edas Butvilas is favored with a 55.8% win probability.
Edas Butvilas
1561
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Alexandre Muller
1507
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Edas ButvilasAlexandre Muller
Hard
Surface
ATP Geneva
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.7% (2,272 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Geneva
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Alexandre Muller
Edas Butvilas
Edas Butvilas leads by 54 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Alexandre Muller SPW
62.5%
Below tour avg
Edas Butvilas SPW
65.6%
Above tour avg
● Edas Butvilas has a significant serve advantage (+3.1%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Alexandre Muller ML
-181
Model: 44%
Edge: -20.2%
Edas Butvilas ML
+151
Model: 56%
Edge: +15.9%
Model Projection
Edas Butvilas ML +151 · +15.9% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Edas Butvilas has a moderate 54-point Elo edge on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Edas Butvilas has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Edas Butvilas 55.8%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →