Alexis Galarneau vs Pedro Boscardin Dias prediction for May 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Pedro Boscardin Dias 0 - Alexis Galarneau 0. Alexis Galarneau is favored with a 55.6% win probability.
Pedro Boscardin Dias
1483
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Alexis Galarneau
1508
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Pedro Boscardin DiasAlexis Galarneau
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.6% (2,758 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Alexis Galarneau
Pedro Boscardin Dias
Alexis Galarneau leads by 25 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Alexis Galarneau SPW
60.0%
Below tour avg
Pedro Boscardin Dias SPW
58.6%
Below tour avg
● Alexis Galarneau has a slight serve edge (+1.4%)
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (25-point Elo gap)
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Alexis Galarneau has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Alexis Galarneau 55.6%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →