Alicia Dudeney vs Dayana Yastremska prediction for June 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Dayana Yastremska 0 - Alicia Dudeney 0. Dayana Yastremska is favored with a 54.7% win probability.
Dayana Yastremska
1500
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • WTA
Alicia Dudeney
1500
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Dayana YastremskaAlicia Dudeney
Hard
Surface
Nottingham
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.5% (5,551 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Nottingham
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Alicia Dudeney
Dayana Yastremska
Alicia Dudeney leads by 0 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Hard: 56.5%
Alicia Dudeney SPW
56.9%
Above tour avg
Dayana Yastremska SPW
57.4%
Above tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Alicia Dudeney ML
+362
Model: 45%
Edge: +23.6%
Dayana Yastremska ML
-447
Model: 55%
Edge: -27.0%
Model Projection
Alicia Dudeney ML +362 · +23.6% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (0-point Elo gap)
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Dayana Yastremska has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Dayana Yastremska 54.7%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →