Alina Charaeva vs Anastasia Kulikova prediction for June 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Anastasia Kulikova 0 - Alina Charaeva 0. Anastasia Kulikova is favored with a 55.4% win probability.
Anastasia Kulikova
1554
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • WTA
Alina Charaeva
1446
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Anastasia KulikovaAlina Charaeva
Hard
Surface
WTA 125K Figueira da Foz - R16
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 50.8% (5,703 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA 125K Figueira da Foz - R16
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Alina Charaeva
Anastasia Kulikova
Anastasia Kulikova leads by 108 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Hard: 56.5%
Alina Charaeva SPW
55.6%
Below tour avg
Anastasia Kulikova SPW
58.3%
Above tour avg
● Anastasia Kulikova has a slight serve edge (+2.7%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Alina Charaeva ML
-1144
Model: 45%
Edge: -47.4%
Anastasia Kulikova ML
+659
Model: 55%
Edge: +42.3%
Model Projection
Anastasia Kulikova ML +659 · +42.3% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Anastasia Kulikova holds a commanding 108-point Elo advantage on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Anastasia Kulikova has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Anastasia Kulikova 55.4%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →