Alina Charaeva vs Ayla Aksu prediction for June 20, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Ayla Aksu 0 - Alina Charaeva 0. Alina Charaeva is favored with a 50.1% win probability.
Ayla Aksu
1472
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • WTA
Alina Charaeva
1446
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Ayla AksuAlina Charaeva
Hard
Surface
Figueira Da Foz Ladies Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 50.6% (5,961 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Figueira Da Foz Ladies Open
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Alina Charaeva
Ayla Aksu
Ayla Aksu leads by 26 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Hard: 56.5%
Alina Charaeva SPW
56.2%
Below tour avg
Ayla Aksu SPW
56.2%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (26-point Elo gap)
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Ayla Aksu has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Alina Charaeva 50.1%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →