Alina Charaeva vs Caroline Werner prediction for June 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Caroline Werner 0 - Alina Charaeva 0. Alina Charaeva is favored with a 55.7% win probability.
Caroline Werner
1500
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • WTA
Alina Charaeva
1500
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Caroline WernerAlina Charaeva
Grass
Surface
WTA Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.3% (6,507 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Alina Charaeva
Caroline Werner
Alina Charaeva leads by 0 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Grass: 56.5%
Alina Charaeva SPW
59.7%
Above tour avg
Caroline Werner SPW
59.6%
Above tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Alina Charaeva ML
-723
Model: 56%
Edge: -32.2%
Caroline Werner ML
+497
Model: 44%
Edge: +27.6%
Model Projection
Caroline Werner ML +497 · +27.6% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (0-point Elo gap)
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Alina Charaeva has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Alina Charaeva 55.7%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →