Alina Charaeva vs Diane Parry prediction for May 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Diane Parry 0 - Alina Charaeva 0. Alina Charaeva is favored with a 52.7% win probability.
Diane Parry
1500
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • WTA
Alina Charaeva
1500
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Diane ParryAlina Charaeva
Hard
Surface
WTA 125k Paris - SF
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.7% (2,272 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA 125k Paris - SF
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Alina Charaeva
Diane Parry
Alina Charaeva leads by 0 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Hard: 56.5%
Alina Charaeva SPW
57.7%
Above tour avg
Diane Parry SPW
57.5%
Above tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Alina Charaeva ML
-157
Model: 53%
Edge: -8.3%
Diane Parry ML
+134
Model: 47%
Edge: +4.5%
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (0-point Elo gap)
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Alina Charaeva has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Alina Charaeva 52.7%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →