Alina Charaeva vs Elizabeth Mandlik prediction for June 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Elizabeth Mandlik 0 - Alina Charaeva 0. Elizabeth Mandlik is favored with a 50.7% win probability.
Elizabeth Mandlik
1436
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • WTA
Alina Charaeva
1462
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Elizabeth MandlikAlina Charaeva
Grass
Surface
WTA Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.0% (6,309 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Alina Charaeva
Elizabeth Mandlik
Alina Charaeva leads by 27 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Grass: 56.5%
Alina Charaeva SPW
54.4%
Below tour avg
Elizabeth Mandlik SPW
56.1%
Below tour avg
● Elizabeth Mandlik has a slight serve edge (+1.7%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Alina Charaeva ML
-140
Model: 49%
Edge: -9.1%
Elizabeth Mandlik ML
+120
Model: 51%
Edge: +5.3%
Model Projection
Elizabeth Mandlik ML +120 · +5.3% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (27-point Elo gap)
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Elizabeth Mandlik has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Elizabeth Mandlik 50.7%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →