Alina Charaeva vs Lucrezia Stefanini prediction for May 20, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Lucrezia Stefanini 0 - Alina Charaeva 0. Alina Charaeva is favored with a 59.5% win probability.
Lucrezia Stefanini
1500
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • WTA
Alina Charaeva
1500
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Lucrezia StefaniniAlina Charaeva
Clay
Surface
WTA French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.0% (2,567 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Alina Charaeva
Lucrezia Stefanini
Alina Charaeva leads by 0 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Clay: 56.5%
Alina Charaeva SPW
55.5%
Below tour avg
Lucrezia Stefanini SPW
54.9%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Alina Charaeva ML
-664
Model: 60%
Edge: -27.4%
Lucrezia Stefanini ML
+479
Model: 40%
Edge: +23.2%
Model Projection
Lucrezia Stefanini ML +479 · +23.2% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (0-point Elo gap)
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Alina Charaeva has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Alina Charaeva 59.5%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →