Alina Charaeva vs Polina Kudermetova prediction for June 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Polina Kudermetova 0 - Alina Charaeva 0. Polina Kudermetova is favored with a 61.0% win probability.
Polina Kudermetova
1497
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • WTA
Alina Charaeva
1462
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Polina KudermetovaAlina Charaeva
Grass
Surface
WTA Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.2% (6,507 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Alina Charaeva
Polina Kudermetova
Polina Kudermetova leads by 34 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Grass: 56.5%
Alina Charaeva SPW
55.3%
Below tour avg
Polina Kudermetova SPW
59.0%
Above tour avg
● Polina Kudermetova has a significant serve advantage (+3.7%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Alina Charaeva ML
+118
Model: 39%
Edge: -6.9%
Polina Kudermetova ML
-141
Model: 61%
Edge: +2.5%
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (34-point Elo gap)
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Polina Kudermetova has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Polina Kudermetova 61.0%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →