Alina Korneeva vs Tian Fangran prediction for June 14, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Tian Fangran 0 - Alina Korneeva 0. Tian Fangran is favored with a 51.7% win probability.
Tian Fangran
1467
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • WTA
Alina Korneeva
1594
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Tian FangranAlina Korneeva
Hard
Surface
Figueira Da Foz Ladies Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.4% (5,244 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Figueira Da Foz Ladies Open
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Alina Korneeva
Tian Fangran
Alina Korneeva leads by 127 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Hard: 56.5%
Alina Korneeva SPW
56.1%
Below tour avg
Tian Fangran SPW
57.6%
Above tour avg
● Tian Fangran has a slight serve edge (+1.5%)
Key Matchup Factors
- Alina Korneeva holds a commanding 127-point Elo advantage on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Tian Fangran has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Tian Fangran 51.7%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →