Aliona Falei vs Martyna Kubka prediction for June 15, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Martyna Kubka 0 - Aliona Falei 0. Martyna Kubka is favored with a 52.8% win probability.
Martyna Kubka
1496
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • WTA
Aliona Falei
1443
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Martyna KubkaAliona Falei
Hard
Surface
WTA 125K Figueira da Foz
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.1% (5,344 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA 125K Figueira da Foz
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Aliona Falei
Martyna Kubka
Martyna Kubka leads by 54 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Hard: 56.5%
Aliona Falei SPW
57.2%
Above tour avg
Martyna Kubka SPW
58.7%
Above tour avg
● Martyna Kubka has a slight serve edge (+1.5%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Aliona Falei ML
-190
Model: 47%
Edge: -18.3%
Martyna Kubka ML
+155
Model: 53%
Edge: +13.5%
Model Projection
Martyna Kubka ML +155 · +13.5% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Martyna Kubka has a moderate 54-point Elo edge on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Martyna Kubka has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Martyna Kubka 52.8%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →