Alycia Parks vs Mary Stoiana prediction for May 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Mary Stoiana 0 - Alycia Parks 0. Alycia Parks is favored with a 53.7% win probability.
Mary Stoiana
1500
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • WTA
Alycia Parks
1500
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Mary StoianaAlycia Parks
Hard
Surface
Parma
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.8% (2,098 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Parma
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Alycia Parks
Mary Stoiana
Alycia Parks leads by 0 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Hard: 56.5%
Alycia Parks SPW
58.6%
Above tour avg
Mary Stoiana SPW
56.9%
Above tour avg
● Alycia Parks has a slight serve edge (+1.7%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Alycia Parks ML
-220
Model: 54%
Edge: -15.0%
Mary Stoiana ML
+165
Model: 46%
Edge: +8.5%
Model Projection
Mary Stoiana ML +165 · +8.5% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (0-point Elo gap)
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Alycia Parks has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Alycia Parks 53.7%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →