Anastasia Potapova vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro prediction for June 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 0 - Anastasia Potapova 0. Anastasia Potapova is favored with a 53.5% win probability.
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro
1578
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • WTA
Anastasia Potapova
1655
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Jessica Bouzas ManeiroAnastasia Potapova
Grass
Surface
WTA Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.2% (6,507 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Anastasia Potapova
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro
Anastasia Potapova leads by 77 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Grass: 56.5%
Anastasia Potapova SPW
59.7%
Above tour avg
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro SPW
58.8%
Above tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Anastasia Potapova ML
-141
Model: 54%
Edge: -5.0%
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro ML
+121
Model: 46%
Edge: +1.3%
Key Matchup Factors
- Anastasia Potapova has a moderate 77-point Elo edge on Grass
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Anastasia Potapova has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Anastasia Potapova 53.5%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →