Anastasia Potapova vs Liudmila Samsonova prediction for May 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Liudmila Samsonova 0 - Anastasia Potapova 0. Anastasia Potapova is favored with a 58.4% win probability.
Liudmila Samsonova
1646
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • WTA
Anastasia Potapova
1660
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Liudmila SamsonovaAnastasia Potapova
Clay
Surface
WTA Italian Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.8% (2,043 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA Italian Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Anastasia Potapova
Liudmila Samsonova
Anastasia Potapova leads by 14 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Clay: 56.5%
Anastasia Potapova SPW
56.9%
Above tour avg
Liudmila Samsonova SPW
54.7%
Below tour avg
● Anastasia Potapova has a slight serve edge (+2.2%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Anastasia Potapova ML
-8000
Model: 58%
Edge: -40.4%
Liudmila Samsonova ML
+5900
Model: 42%
Edge: +39.9%
Model Projection
Liudmila Samsonova ML +5900 · +39.9% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (14-point Elo gap)
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Anastasia Potapova has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Anastasia Potapova 58.4%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →