Anastasia Potapova vs Marta Kostyuk prediction for May 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Marta Kostyuk 0 - Anastasia Potapova 0. Anastasia Potapova is favored with a 79.2% win probability.
Marta Kostyuk
1684
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • WTA
Anastasia Potapova
1660
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Marta KostyukAnastasia Potapova
Clay
Surface
WTA Madrid Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.4% (1,401 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA Madrid Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Anastasia Potapova
Marta Kostyuk
Marta Kostyuk leads by 24 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Clay: 56.5%
Anastasia Potapova SPW
59.3%
Above tour avg
Marta Kostyuk SPW
53.2%
Below tour avg
● Anastasia Potapova has a significant serve advantage (+6.1%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Anastasia Potapova ML
+8900
Model: 79%
Edge: +78.0%
Marta Kostyuk ML
-8000
Model: 21%
Edge: -77.9%
Model Projection
Anastasia Potapova ML +8900 · +78.0% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (24-point Elo gap)
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Anastasia Potapova has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Anastasia Potapova at 79%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Anastasia Potapova 79.2%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →