Anastasia Zakharova vs Dayana Yastremska prediction for May 6, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Dayana Yastremska 0 - Anastasia Zakharova 0. Dayana Yastremska is favored with a 51.0% win probability.
Dayana Yastremska
1511
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • WTA
Anastasia Zakharova
1520
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Dayana YastremskaAnastasia Zakharova
Clay
Surface
Internazionali BNL d'Italia
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.4% (1,460 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Internazionali BNL d'Italia
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Anastasia Zakharova
Dayana Yastremska
Anastasia Zakharova leads by 9 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Clay: 56.5%
Anastasia Zakharova SPW
49.1%
Below tour avg
Dayana Yastremska SPW
51.5%
Below tour avg
● Dayana Yastremska has a slight serve edge (+2.4%)
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (9-point Elo gap)
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Dayana Yastremska has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Dayana Yastremska 51.0%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →