Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Alina Korneeva prediction for June 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Alina Korneeva 0 - Andrea Lazaro Garcia 0. Alina Korneeva is favored with a 51.8% win probability.
Alina Korneeva
1504
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • WTA
Andrea Lazaro Garcia
1578
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Alina KorneevaAndrea Lazaro Garcia
Grass
Surface
WTA Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.1% (6,507 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Andrea Lazaro Garcia
Alina Korneeva
Andrea Lazaro Garcia leads by 74 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Grass: 56.5%
Andrea Lazaro Garcia SPW
57.4%
Above tour avg
Alina Korneeva SPW
58.2%
Above tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Andrea Lazaro Garcia ML
+194
Model: 48%
Edge: +14.1%
Alina Korneeva ML
-231
Model: 52%
Edge: -17.9%
Model Projection
Andrea Lazaro Garcia ML +194 · +14.1% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Andrea Lazaro Garcia has a moderate 74-point Elo edge on Grass
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Alina Korneeva has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Alina Korneeva 51.8%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →