Andrea Pellegrino vs Arthur Fils prediction for May 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Arthur Fils 0 - Andrea Pellegrino 0. Arthur Fils is favored with a 60.9% win probability.
Arthur Fils
1684
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Andrea Pellegrino
1521
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Arthur FilsAndrea Pellegrino
Clay
Surface
Internazionali BNL d'Italia
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.6% (1,806 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Internazionali BNL d'Italia
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Andrea Pellegrino
Arthur Fils
Arthur Fils leads by 163 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Andrea Pellegrino SPW
59.6%
Below tour avg
Arthur Fils SPW
62.7%
Below tour avg
● Arthur Fils has a significant serve advantage (+3.1%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Andrea Pellegrino ML
+500
Model: 39%
Edge: +22.5%
Arthur Fils ML
-750
Model: 61%
Edge: -27.4%
Model Projection
Andrea Pellegrino ML +500 · +22.5% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Arthur Fils holds a commanding 163-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Arthur Fils has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Arthur Fils 60.9%
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More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →