Andrea Pellegrino vs Flavio Cobolli prediction for May 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Flavio Cobolli 0 - Andrea Pellegrino 0. Flavio Cobolli is favored with a 60.7% win probability.
Flavio Cobolli
1666
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Andrea Pellegrino
1521
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Flavio CobolliAndrea Pellegrino
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.0% (3,855 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Andrea Pellegrino
Flavio Cobolli
Flavio Cobolli leads by 145 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Andrea Pellegrino SPW
57.9%
Below tour avg
Flavio Cobolli SPW
60.1%
Below tour avg
● Flavio Cobolli has a slight serve edge (+2.2%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Andrea Pellegrino ML
+232
Model: 39%
Edge: +9.2%
Flavio Cobolli ML
-274
Model: 61%
Edge: -12.6%
Model Projection
Andrea Pellegrino ML +232 · +9.2% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Flavio Cobolli holds a commanding 145-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Flavio Cobolli has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Flavio Cobolli 60.7%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →