Andrea Pellegrino vs Frances Tiafoe prediction for May 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Frances Tiafoe 0 - Andrea Pellegrino 0. Frances Tiafoe is favored with a 58.9% win probability.
Frances Tiafoe
1592
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Andrea Pellegrino
1521
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Frances TiafoeAndrea Pellegrino
Clay
Surface
ATP Italian Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.8% (2,098 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Italian Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Andrea Pellegrino
Frances Tiafoe
Frances Tiafoe leads by 71 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Andrea Pellegrino SPW
59.9%
Below tour avg
Frances Tiafoe SPW
63.3%
Below tour avg
● Frances Tiafoe has a significant serve advantage (+3.4%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Andrea Pellegrino ML
+231
Model: 41%
Edge: +10.9%
Frances Tiafoe ML
-200
Model: 59%
Edge: -7.8%
Model Projection
Andrea Pellegrino ML +231 · +10.9% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Frances Tiafoe has a moderate 71-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Frances Tiafoe has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Frances Tiafoe 58.9%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →