Andrea Pellegrino vs Jay Clarke prediction for June 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Jay Clarke 0 - Andrea Pellegrino 0. Andrea Pellegrino is favored with a 51.3% win probability.
Jay Clarke
1444
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Andrea Pellegrino
1516
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Jay ClarkeAndrea Pellegrino
Grass
Surface
ATP Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.4% (6,036 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Andrea Pellegrino
Jay Clarke
Andrea Pellegrino leads by 71 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Andrea Pellegrino SPW
66.3%
Above tour avg
Jay Clarke SPW
65.9%
Above tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Andrea Pellegrino ML
+239
Model: 51%
Edge: +21.8%
Jay Clarke ML
-290
Model: 49%
Edge: -25.7%
Model Projection
Andrea Pellegrino ML +239 · +21.8% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Andrea Pellegrino has a moderate 71-point Elo edge on Grass
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Andrea Pellegrino has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Andrea Pellegrino 51.3%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →