Andrea Pellegrino vs Marco Cecchinato prediction for May 19, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Marco Cecchinato 0 - Andrea Pellegrino 0. Andrea Pellegrino is favored with a 54.0% win probability.
Marco Cecchinato
1634
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Andrea Pellegrino
1521
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Marco CecchinatoAndrea Pellegrino
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.9% (2,860 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Andrea Pellegrino
Marco Cecchinato
Marco Cecchinato leads by 113 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Andrea Pellegrino SPW
60.5%
Below tour avg
Marco Cecchinato SPW
59.7%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Andrea Pellegrino ML
-231
Model: 54%
Edge: -15.7%
Marco Cecchinato ML
+190
Model: 46%
Edge: +11.5%
Model Projection
Marco Cecchinato ML +190 · +11.5% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Marco Cecchinato holds a commanding 113-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Andrea Pellegrino has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Andrea Pellegrino 54.0%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →