Andrea Pellegrino vs Martin Landaluce prediction for May 4, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Martin Landaluce 0 - Andrea Pellegrino 0. Andrea Pellegrino is favored with a 58.4% win probability.
Martin Landaluce
1392
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Andrea Pellegrino
1521
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Martin LandaluceAndrea Pellegrino
Clay
Surface
ATP Italian Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.7% (1,570 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Italian Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Andrea Pellegrino
Martin Landaluce
Andrea Pellegrino leads by 129 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Andrea Pellegrino SPW
59.9%
Below tour avg
Martin Landaluce SPW
59.6%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Andrea Pellegrino ML
+134
Model: 58%
Edge: +15.7%
Martin Landaluce ML
-168
Model: 42%
Edge: -21.1%
Model Projection
Andrea Pellegrino ML +134 · +15.7% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Andrea Pellegrino holds a commanding 129-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Andrea Pellegrino has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Andrea Pellegrino 58.4%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →