Andrea Pellegrino vs Tristan Boyer prediction for June 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Tristan Boyer 0 - Andrea Pellegrino 0. Tristan Boyer is favored with a 51.9% win probability.
Tristan Boyer
1485
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Andrea Pellegrino
1516
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Tristan BoyerAndrea Pellegrino
Grass
Surface
ATP Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.0% (6,309 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Andrea Pellegrino
Tristan Boyer
Andrea Pellegrino leads by 31 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Andrea Pellegrino SPW
65.5%
Above tour avg
Tristan Boyer SPW
65.8%
Above tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Andrea Pellegrino ML
+148
Model: 48%
Edge: +7.8%
Tristan Boyer ML
-177
Model: 52%
Edge: -12.0%
Model Projection
Andrea Pellegrino ML +148 · +7.8% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (31-point Elo gap)
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Tristan Boyer has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Tristan Boyer 51.9%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →