Andrey Rublev vs Ignacio Buse prediction for May 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Ignacio Buse 0 - Andrey Rublev 0. Andrey Rublev is favored with a 62.4% win probability.
Ignacio Buse
1609
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Andrey Rublev
1674
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Ignacio BuseAndrey Rublev
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.8% (3,811 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Andrey Rublev
Ignacio Buse
Andrey Rublev leads by 65 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Andrey Rublev SPW
63.7%
Above tour avg
Ignacio Buse SPW
61.5%
Below tour avg
● Andrey Rublev has a slight serve edge (+2.2%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Andrey Rublev ML
-219
Model: 62%
Edge: -6.3%
Ignacio Buse ML
+192
Model: 38%
Edge: +3.4%
Key Matchup Factors
- Andrey Rublev has a moderate 65-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Andrey Rublev has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Andrey Rublev 62.4%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →