Ann Li vs Liudmila Samsonova prediction for May 8, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Liudmila Samsonova 0 - Ann Li 0. Ann Li is favored with a 51.7% win probability.
Liudmila Samsonova
1646
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • WTA
Ann Li
1561
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Liudmila SamsonovaAnn Li
Clay
Surface
WTA Italian Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.6% (1,806 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA Italian Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Ann Li
Liudmila Samsonova
Liudmila Samsonova leads by 85 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Clay: 56.5%
Ann Li SPW
56.1%
Below tour avg
Liudmila Samsonova SPW
54.8%
Below tour avg
● Ann Li has a slight serve edge (+1.3%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Ann Li ML
+124
Model: 52%
Edge: +7.1%
Liudmila Samsonova ML
-144
Model: 48%
Edge: -10.8%
Model Projection
Ann Li ML +124 · +7.1% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Liudmila Samsonova has a moderate 85-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Ann Li has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Ann Li 51.7%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →